The cost of insecurity: from flare-up to control of a major Ebola virus disease hotspot during the outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2019.

The ongoing Ebola outbreak in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo is facing unprecedented levels of insecurity and violence. We evaluate the likely impact in terms of added transmissibility and cases of major security incidents in the Butembo coordination hub. We also show that despite this additional burden, an adapted response strategy involving enlarged ring vaccination around clusters of cases and enhanced community engagement managed to bring this main hotspot under control.

Cholera epidemic in Yemen, 2016-18: an analysis of surveillance data.

BACKGROUND: In war-torn Yemen, reports of confirmed cholera started in late September, 2016. The disease continues to plague Yemen today in what has become the largest documented cholera epidemic of modern times. We aimed to describe the key epidemiological features of this epidemic, including the drivers of cholera transmission during the outbreak. METHODS: The Yemen Health Authorities set up a national cholera surveillance system to collect information on suspected cholera cases presenting at health facilities. Individual variables included symptom onset date, age, severity of dehydration, and rapid diagnostic test result. Suspected cholera cases were confirmed by culture, and a subset of samples had additional phenotypic and genotypic analysis. We first conducted descriptive analyses at national and governorate levels. We divided the epidemic into three time periods: the first wave (Sept 28, 2016, to April 23, 2017), the increasing phase of the second wave (April 24, 2017, to July 2, 2017), and the decreasing phase of the second wave (July 3, 2017, to March 12, 2018). We reconstructed the changes in cholera transmission over time by estimating the instantaneous reproduction number, Rt. Finally, we estimated the association between rainfall and the daily cholera incidence during the increasing phase of the second epidemic wave by fitting a spatiotemporal regression model. FINDINGS: From Sept 28, 2016, to March 12, 2018, 1 103 683 suspected cholera cases (attack rate 3·69%) and 2385 deaths (case fatality risk 0·22%) were reported countrywide. The epidemic consisted of two distinct waves with a surge in transmission in May, 2017, corresponding to a median Rt of more than 2 in 13 of 23 governorates. Microbiological analyses suggested that the same Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa strain circulated in both waves. We found a positive, non-linear, association between weekly rainfall and suspected cholera incidence in the following 10 days; the relative risk of cholera after a weekly rainfall of 25 mm was 1·42 (95% CI 1·31-1·55) compared with a week without rain. INTERPRETATION: Our analysis suggests that the small first cholera epidemic wave seeded cholera across Yemen during the dry season. When the rains returned in April, 2017, they triggered widespread cholera transmission that led to the large second wave. These results suggest that cholera could resurge during the ongoing 2018 rainy season if transmission remains active. Therefore, health authorities and partners should immediately enhance current control efforts to mitigate the risk of a new cholera epidemic wave in Yemen. FUNDING: Health Authorities of Yemen, WHO, and Médecins Sans Frontières.

An algorithm to assess methodological quality of nutrition and mortality cross-sectional surveys: development and application to surveys conducted in Darfur, Sudan.

BACKGROUND: Nutrition and mortality surveys are the main tools whereby evidence on the health status of populations affected by disasters and armed conflict is quantified and monitored over time. Several reviews have consistently revealed a lack of rigor in many surveys. We describe an algorithm for analyzing nutritional and mortality survey reports to identify a comprehensive range of errors that may result in sampling, response, or measurement biases and score quality. We apply the algorithm to surveys conducted in Darfur, Sudan. METHODS: We developed an algorithm based on internationally agreed upon methods and best practices. Penalties are attributed for a list of errors, and an overall score is built from the summation of penalties accrued by the survey as a whole. To test the algorithm reproducibility, it was independently applied by three raters on 30 randomly selected survey reports. The algorithm was further applied to more than 100 surveys conducted in Darfur, Sudan. RESULTS: The Intra Class Correlation coefficient was 0.79 for mortality surveys and 0.78 for nutrition surveys. The overall median quality score and range of about 100 surveys conducted in Darfur were 0.60 (0.12-0.93) and 0.675 (0.23-0.86) for mortality and nutrition surveys, respectively. They varied between the organizations conducting the surveys, with no major trend over time. CONCLUSION: Our study suggests that it is possible to systematically assess quality of surveys and reveals considerable problems with the quality of nutritional and particularly mortality surveys conducted in the Darfur crisis.

Trends in malnutrition and mortality in Darfur, Sudan, between 2004 and 2008: a meta-analysis of publicly available surveys.

BACKGROUND: The humanitarian response to the crisis in Darfur is the largest humanitarian operation in the world. To investigate the evolution of the conditions of the affected population, we analysed trends in malnutrition and mortality, the most widely accepted indicators for assessing the degree of severity of a crisis. METHODS: We did a meta-analysis of 164 publicly available surveys taking into account changes in the contextual situation and humanitarian aid; type of population [residents and internally displaced persons (IDPs)]; and seasonal variations. Data on global acute malnutrition (GAM), severe acute malnutrition (SAM), crude death rate (CDR) and under-five death rate (U5DR) were analysed using a random effect model. RESULTS: GAM and SAM decreased by 16% and 28%, respectively, in 2004-05, whereas CDR dropped by 44-75% per year depending on state and type of population and U5DR decreased by an overall 50% yearly. Both security and the humanitarian contexts became increasingly complex after 2005, but levels of malnutrition stabilized in North and South Darfur. In West Darfur, GAM remained stable but SAM tended to increase for IDPs, although mortality rates remained constant. Mortality increased slightly for residents in South Darfur after 2005, even though nutritional status was stable. GAM, SAM, CDR and U5DR fluctuated markedly with seasons. CONCLUSION: A meta-analysis of myriads of surveys permitted us to draw an overall picture of the situation in Darfur and to identify some of its influencing factors. The large humanitarian operation, which gained momentum through 2004-05, was able to contain the crisis despite huge difficulties, but did not compensate for seasonal variations. The situation has remained fragile with some negative patterns tending to emerge. It is crucial that the humanitarian situation continues to be closely monitored.

Vaccine production capacity for seasonal and pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza.

The first influenza pandemic of the 21st century, due to a new strain of A(H1N1) virus, was declared on 11 June 2009 by the Director-General of the World Health Organization. Fortunately, the international community, including influenza vaccine manufacturers, has been increasing its preparedness for such an event, triggered by the need to stem the spread of the highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus over recent years. Today, the development of a pandemic influenza vaccine in the fastest possible time is a global priority. However, two major issues need to be taken into consideration: how long will it take to produce sufficient pandemic vaccine doses to immunize the global population at risk, including poor populations that have no resources to purchase the vaccine; and how will pandemic vaccine production affect availability of trivalent vaccine for the forthcoming 2009-2010 influenza season. To address these questions, WHO carried out a survey in May 2009 among influenza vaccine manufacturers on their planned seasonal and pandemic production with a view to developing recommendations on the distribution and use of pandemic influenza vaccine.

An outbreak of yellow fever with concurrent chikungunya virus transmission in South Kordofan, Sudan, 2005.

From September through December 2005, an outbreak of hemorrhagic fever occurred in South Kordofan, Sudan. Initial laboratory test results identified IgM antibodies against yellow fever (YF) virus in patient samples, and a YF outbreak was declared on 14 November. To control the outbreak, a YF mass vaccination campaign was conducted and vector control implemented in parts of South Kordofan. Surveillance data were obtained from the Sudan Federal Ministry of Health. Clinical information and serum samples were obtained from a subset of patients with illness during the outbreak. Nomads, health personnel and village chiefs were interviewed about the outbreak. Mosquitoes were collected in 11 villages and towns in North and South Kordofan. From 10 September to 9 December 2005 a total of 605 cases of outbreak-related illness were reported, of which 45% were in nomads. Twenty-nine percent of 177 patients seen at clinics in Julud and Abu Jubaiyah had illness consistent with YF. Five of 18 unvaccinated persons with recent illness and 4 of 16 unvaccinated asymptomatic persons had IgM antibodies to YF virus. IgM antibodies to chikungunya virus were detected in five (27%) ill persons and three (19%) asymptomatic persons. These results indicate that both chikungunya and YF occurred during the outbreak.

Plasmodium vivax resistance to chloroquine in Dawei, southern Myanmar.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of chloroquine in the treatment of Plasmodium vivax malaria in in Dawei District, southern Myanmar. METHODS: Enrolled patients at Sonsinphya clinic >6 months of age were assessed clinically and parasitologically every week for 28 days. To differentiate new infections from recrudescence, we genotyped pre- and post-treatment parasitaemia. Blood chloroquine was measured to confirm resistant strains. RESULTS: Between December 2002 and April 2003, 2661 patients were screened, of whom 252 were included and 235 analysed. Thirty-four per cent (95% CI: 28.1-40.6) of patients had recurrent parasitaemia and were considered treatment failures. 59.4% of these recurrences were with a different parasite strain. Two (0.8%) patients with recurrences on day 14 had chloroquine concentrations above the threshold of 100 ng/ml and were considered infected with chloroquine resistant parasites. 21% of failures occurred during the first 3 weeks of follow-up: early recurrence and median levels of blood chloroquine comparable to those of controls suggested P. vivax resistance. CONCLUSIONS: Plasmodium vivax resistance to chloroquine seems to be emerging in Dawei, near the Thai-Burmese border. While chloroquine remains the first-line drug for P. vivax infections in this area of Myanmar, regular monitoring is needed to detect further development of parasite resistance.

Efficacy of chloroquine and sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Koumantou, Mali.

We report the results of an in vivo antimalarial efficacy study with chloroquine (CQ) and sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine (SP) conducted between 2003 and 2004 in Koumantou, southern Mali. A total of 244 children were included in the study; 210 children were followed-up for 28 days according to WHO recommendations, with PCR genotyping to distinguish late recrudescence from re-infection. Global failure proportions at Day 14, without taking into account re-infections, were 44.2% (95% CI 34.9-53.5%) in the CQ group and 2.0% (95% CI 0.0-4.8%) in the SP group. PCR-adjusted failure proportions at Day 28 were even higher in the CQ group (90.5% (95/105), 95% CI 84.8-96.2%) and relatively low in the SP group (7.0% (7/100), 95% CI 1.9-12.1%). These results show that CQ is no longer efficacious in Koumantou. The use of SP in monotherapy is likely to compromise its efficacy. We recommend the use of artemisinin-based combination therapy as first-line treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Koumantou.